Frequently asked questions
Past investments in strengthening weather and climate observing capacity, supported by the international community through time-bound projects, have not, in many instances, yielded lasting benefits. The main reasons for this are: First, traditional development projects respond to national requirements and capabilities. While a country-driven approach is important, it is not sufficient for investments in observing systems as it ignores the trans-boundary nature of weather and climate prediction. Second, past international engagement has focused on supporting infrastructure investments while relying on the unrealistic expectation that supported countries will cover all costs related to the operation and maintenance of their basic observations system which has a global public good dimension. Third, effective collaboration among the several scientific, financial, and operational partners involved in the implementation of the weather and climate observing system has proved to be very challenging. While several development partners are striving to overcome these barriers, the reality is, that due to their governance and country delivery models they are not in a position to deliver GBON support in a sustainable and effective manner.
SOFF will overcome the shortfalls of the current financing model by providing both technical and financial assistance in new ways: First, SOFF will apply an optimal and internationally agreed global design to guide investments – the GBON requirements. Second, SOFF will contribute to cover operation and maintenance costs by providing long-term support beyond time-bound investment projects through results-based finance to enable sustained data sharing. In other words, data sharing is used as a measure of success. Third, SOFF will create local benefits while recognizing the contribution of local observations for a critical regional and global public good.
SOFF will be created as a fit-for-purpose mechanism that will enable streamlined delivery and collaboration among the many financial, operational, and scientific partners required for the sustained implementation of the GBON.
Ground-based observations continue to be the backbone of weather and climate prediction models. GBON observations are essential to measuring weather and climate variables that cannot be reliably observed from space. These surface-based observations also play a vital role in the calibration and validation of satellite data. In order to forecast beyond the intermediate next hours, prediction models require continued access to a wealth of real-time both space-based and land-based observations from the entire globe.
GBON delivers essential data for the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Both, WIGOS and GCOS are global coordination and collaboration frameworks aiming at enhancing understanding of our earth and climate system and facilitating the production of weather and climate information services, through the provision of more and better observations. They are a system of systems – with GBON being a foundational one for the two of them. See here a joint statement of the major European meteorological institutions (ECMWF, EUMETNET, EUMETSAT) and WMO in support of the SOFF.
SOFF finances capital investments, capacity building, and contributes to the operation and maintenance costs of the national GBON. This includes financing infrastructure – weather stations and related equipment based on the GBON requirements -, human and institutional capacity and long-term results-based finance triggered by verified data sharing results globally monitored in real-time by the World Meteorological Organization.
As part of the SOFF support package, SOFF will provide continuous technical assistance. The Country Support Initiative will provide technical assistance and advisory support to countries and SOFF implementing entities on achieving and maintaining GBON compliance. It provides hands-on peer-to-peer support through national meteorological services, including the Country Hydromet Diagnostics peer review as a first mandatory step of the SOFF Readiness Phase.
SOFF is a dedicated financing mechanism that will provide grants and technical assistance to support long-term generation and sharing of basic surface-based weather and climate observations as per the internationally agreed Global Basic Observing Network (GBON) requirements.
SOFF will prioritize its support to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in its initial five-year implementation period. SOFF grants are expected to be embedded in broader national and regional hydromet and climate projects, blending national and international resources, including from the major international development and climate finance partners. Limited “readiness” support will be provided to additional countries eligible to receive official development assistance (ODA), as classified by OECD DAC
The Global Basic Observing Network (GBON) is an international agreement that responds to the most essential data requirements of global weather and climate prediction models that are not met by satellite systems. Based on a global optimal design, GBON sets clear requirements to countries for collecting and internationally sharing surface-based observations of the most essential weather and climate variables i.e., atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and snow depth. In 2019, the Eighteenth World Meteorological Congress (Cg-18) and its 193 Member countries and territories agreed to establish the GBON. It is based on the principle of global free and unrestricted data-sharing and collaboration among nations for a critical global public good. The final GBON technical requirements have been approved by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Infrastructure Commission and are to be submitted to WMO Extraordinary Congress for final approval in 2021.
There are two distinct shortfalls that GBON is addressing: Insufficient collection of essential surface-based weather and climate observations in particular in meteorologically critical parts of the globe; and insufficient international sharing of these data. GBON addresses both issues through the definition of specific requirements that countries have committed to meet.
Whilst some regions already provide a robust supply of surface-based observations, some areas of the world, notably Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) significantly lack the infrastructure and capacity to meet GBON requirements, including for sustained operation and maintenance of the network. To achieve the GBON target of about 2300 weather stations (surface and upper air stations) in these countries, about 2000 stations need to be rehabilitated or newly installed and sustainably operated.
Due to a lack or poor quality of weather and climate observations, today’s weather prediction models are short of the ultimate limit of predictability, and there is ample room for further improvement in predictability. A coordinated effort to design better models and increase the availability of surface-based data that feed these models could lead to 10-day forecasts reaching an accuracy equivalent to today’s 5-day forecasts. Each day of additional warning gives decision makers more time to prepare for increasingly record-breaking storms, forest fires, droughts, heatwaves, and floods and better understand adaptation challenges they will face and prepare and respond accordingly.
The estimated global annual benefit of weather and climate prediction is about USD 158 billion. The potential benefits directly attributed to the full implementation of GBON are assessed to be around USD 5 billion per year. The required investments to improve and sustain GBON in low- and middle-income countries would yield a cost-benefit ratio of more than 1:26. This means for every dollar invested, at least twenty-six dollars in socio-economic returns would be realized. While all regions would benefit from these improvements, regions with significant populations but limited observation networks would benefit the most, particularly Africa. Other parts of the globe will also profit from medium to long-range forecast improvements (World Bank research paper, in the process to be published).
Systematic observation of the Earth’s climate is a global common good that supports the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated the high vulnerability of the global observing system and its impact on the quality of surface-based weather and climate observations. With current policies and approaches, surface-based weather and climate observations are highly vulnerable and in decline in many countries. As an example, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts observed a dramatic decrease in the number of shared radiosonde data (the most important surface-based data for weather and climate prediction models) of almost 50% in Africa from 2015 to 2020. These numbers do not include a further decline in observations since January 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19.
Poor and declining availability of basic surface-based observational data leads to unreliable weather and climate prediction models. This has negative impacts on the many sectors that depend on these data (e.g., agriculture, transport, insurance), as well as on disaster risk management, adaptation and even mitigation strategies.
SOFF finances capital investments, capacity building, and contributes to the operation and maintenance costs of the national GBON. This includes financing infrastructure – weather stations and related equipment based on the GBON requirements -, human and institutional capacity and long-term results-based finance triggered by verified data sharing results globally monitored in real-time by the World Meteorological Organization.
As part of the SOFF support package, SOFF will provide continuous technical assistance. The Country Support Initiative will provide technical assistance and advisory support to countries and SOFF implementing entities on achieving and maintaining GBON compliance. It provides hands-on peer-to-peer support through national meteorological services, including the Country Hydromet Diagnostics peer review as a first mandatory step of the SOFF Readiness Phase.
In the Investment Phase, SOFF implementing partners, including Multilateral Development Banks and UN agencies, draw on SOFF funds on behalf of beneficiary countries and integrate these grant resources into their broader concessional and non-concessional financing operations. This is to ensure that SOFF investments and outcomes are an integral part of broader investments in early warning systems, resilient development, and adaptation to climate change.
In the Compliance Phase, SOFF provides results-based finance to GBON compliant countries to substantially cover operation and maintenance costs.
The grant and long-term nature of SOFF support for SIDS and LDCs is justified on the unbalanced nature of countries’ contribution to the GBON as a global public good and their economic means to deliver; the fact that many of these countries already suffer from excessive indebtedness; and their high vulnerability to extreme events and climate change impacts.
For more information see here.
SOFF provides operation and maintenance support to GBON compliant beneficiary countries on an open-ended basis. Weather and climate observations from all over the world need to be permanently collected and shared. Experience has shown that SIDS and LDCs need long-term support to operate and maintain their GBON. As countries move out of the LDC or SIDS status they would be required to cover the operating and maintenance costs of their GBON through their own resources.
As a global public good, it is in all countries’ interest to ensure that countries with large economic constraints receive long-term support to contribute to the costs of operating the GBON network and internationally exchange their observations.
SOFF will permanently monitor and assess the evolving technologies, weather and climate prediction modeling capabilities, private sector opportunities, and countries’ circumstances to ensure SOFF investments and technical assistance are based on the best available science and cutting-edge technology. This will allow seeking ways to minimize the annual costs of operating and maintaining the GBON without endangering the quality of observations and the outputs of weather and climate prediction models locally and globally.
As part of the GBON international agreement, the 193 Members of the World Meteorological Organization are committed to keeping implementation options of GBON under ongoing review, including potential amendments to the GBON regulatory material, to address technological and environmental developments. This includes the environmental impact of observing technologies; ways to stimulate the development of new observing technologies; development of guidance material regarding the optimal mix of technologies to meet GBON requirements under various geographic constraints; and potential future paths of evolution for GBON into domains and disciplines beyond its current scope.
SOFF funding needs to progressively achieve and sustain GBON compliance in all 68 LDCs and SIDS over an initial 5-year implementation period correspond to USD 400 million. Sustaining GBON and its data-sharing over time is expected to require USD 50 million per year subsequently. This amount is negligible in comparison with the estimated global benefits of improved weather observations, early warning and climate information for disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change. The aim is to mobilize at least USD 200 million by UNFCCC COP 26 and to secure the remaining resources in 2022.
Today’s investments in observing systems by the major climate and development finance institutions that form the Alliance for Hydromet Development are of a similar magnitude to the SOFF funding needs. However, current investments are confronted with massive sustainability challenges that translate into substantial data sharing gaps. SOFF will not only tackle these challenges but will also lead to an up to 20-fold increase of essential weather and climate data internationally shared by SOFF beneficiary countries.
The SOFF will focus in its initial implementation period on those countries that do not have the financial and technical capacity to operate and maintain GBON. This covers some of the most data-sparse parts of the world, which means that any improvement in observations in these countries will have a large impact on the performance of weather and climate prediction models both locally and globally.
Recognizing the substantial sustainability challenges of the current financing model for investments in weather and climate observing systems, the members of the Alliance for Hydromet Development are committed to the creation of the SOFF. Several members of the Alliance are expected to serve as SOFF implementing entities and they will use SOFF resources for the GBON-related components of their operations in SOFF eligible countries.
The Alliance was launched at the UNFCCC COP 25 and unites efforts of major development and climate finance partners to increase the effectiveness of their efforts to close the capacity gap on high-quality weather forecasts, early warning systems, and climate information. The members of the Alliance for Hydromet Development include 12 founding members: Adaptation Fund, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, Climate Investment Funds, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Global Environment Facility, Green Climate Fund, Islamic Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme, World Bank, World Food Programme, and World Meteorological Organization. The Climate Investment Funds joined the Alliance in October 2020.
While SOFF will become a dedicated mechanism and partnership to deliver support in more effective ways, it does not aim at becoming a new institution. The objective is to integrate SOFF into an existing (or to be expanded) international development and climate finance institution. SOFF institutional host options have been identified and are currently being explored in an in-depth manner.
SOFF focuses on the upstream work required to create a solid foundation for downstream investments related to disaster risk management, resilient development, adaptation to climate change and green recovery. Any climate and development investment require reliable and most accurate weather forecasts and climate prediction information. SOFF financial and technical assistance will help countries to develop the vital foundation to become ‘ready’ to access support and finance provided by international development and climate finance partners and initiatives, including the partners of the Risk-informed Early Action Partnership (REAP) initiatives and the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative.
InsuResilience Global Partnership and its partners will benefit from improvements in the quality of global weather forecast and climate prediction model products achieved through the implementation of GBON. Improved data availability is also vital for the validation and calibration of satellite data largely used by InsuResilience and its insurance partners. InsuResilience strives to reduce market barriers for private sector engagement in climate risk insurance, including by increasing access to improved weather and climate prediction modeling and information. SOFF will closely coordinate with InsuResilience to ensure InsuResilience activities fully take advantage of the achieved improvements in weather forecast and climate prediction products.
The Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Initiative is a mechanism that funds Least Developed Countries (LDC) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) for risk-informed early warning services. It currently provides support to over 50 countries. This support includes capacity building to use predictions and forecasts provided by global and regional weather prediction centres, issue specific local forecasts for hazards such as flash floods and coastal flooding, develop Standard Operational Procedure for early warning and preparedness, put in place early warning strategies and legislation, and co-produce warning services with populations at risk.
CREWS support fundamentally depends on reliable weather and climate prediction products that depend on surface-based weather and climate observations. These observations are poor and declining in many countries where CREWS operates. Therefore, SOFF efforts to make LDCs and SIDS GBON compliant fully complements and provides the operational data basis for the work of CREWS.
CREWS has been identified as a potential host institution for SOFF. The CREWS Steering Committee decided in December 2020 to organize an inter-sessional meeting in the first quarter of 2021 to follow up the discussion regarding SOFF with a view to understanding the SOFF opportunities and implications for the CREWS initiative.
The Risk-Informed Early Action Partnership (REAP) aims to drive a systemic shift towards early action to reduce the impacts of disasters, incl. investments in early warning systems infrastructure and institutions, building on existent initiatives. REAP targets aim among others at ensuring that investments in weather and forecast infrastructure translate into “last-mile” action.
SOFF contributes to the provision of foundational “upstream” weather and climate data and prediction products for evidence-based risk-informed early action. Major development institutions, including Multi-lateral Development Banks and UN organizations, will be SOFF implementing partners. This will ensure that GBON infrastructure and long-term data-sharing translate into improved early warnings and climate information services foundational to achieve REAP early action targets.
SOFF will partner with GriF to ensure that the improved weather and climate prediction products support the upstream capacity needed to create an enabling environment for the operation of risk financing instruments in GriF supported countries. GriF tests, pilots, and scales-up financing instruments such as insurance to help governments and humanitarian agencies access funding more quickly to support a faster, more effective response to shocks and crises.
SOFF will deliver benefits for the private sector in two main ways: (i) contribution to market expansion and creation, including enabling the environment for Public-Private Partnerships; and (ii) benefits from the improvement of weather and climate prediction products. By increasing the demand for equipment, SOFF will provide opportunities for businesses in the weather enterprise to expand their market e.g. companies manufacturing and commercializing weather stations and related operation and maintenance products and services. While achieving compliance with the GBON is a national obligation, it is up to the countries to decide how this obligation will be delivered, with the spectrum ranging from 100% public to combined undertakings with the private sector. The benefits associated with the improvement of weather and climate prediction models will be available to an even larger segment of the weather-related market participants. While GBON data is freely shared among governments, the private sector will have access and be able to acquire improved global modeling products as a result of GBON data improvements.
Consultations will be conducted with private sector stakeholders, both in the SOFF development phase and during SOFF implementation, with a focus on three topics. First, technology, innovation, and environmental sustainability to establish, operate and maintain the national GBON systems. Second, knowledge sharing in operating observing systems. Third, private sector financial contributions to SOFF, through the exploration of new business models as well as voluntary financial contributions as part of Environmental Social and Corporate Governance strategies.
SOFF will underpin and support COVID pandemic green recovery in three ways. First, SOFF will substantially contribute to making the global basic observing network more resilient to systemic shocks. Second, SOFF will lead to improvement in the outputs of weather and climate prediction models, which are essential to climate-proof green recovery investments. Third, SOFF will contribute to the provision of evidence-based critical information to enabling the environment for scaling up green innovation and fostering entrepreneurship in a time of urgently required transformational change.
SOFF is a dedicated financing mechanism that will provide grants and technical assistance to support long-term generation and sharing of basic surface-based weather and climate observations as per the internationally agreed Global Basic Observing Network (GBON) requirements.
SOFF will prioritize its support to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in its initial five-year implementation period. SOFF grants are expected to be embedded in broader national and regional hydromet and climate projects, blending national and international resources, including from the major international development and climate finance partners. Limited “readiness” support will be provided to additional countries eligible to receive official development assistance (ODA), as classified by OECD DAC
Past investments in strengthening weather and climate observing capacity, supported by the international community through time-bound projects, have not, in many instances, yielded lasting benefits. The main reasons for this are: First, traditional development projects respond to national requirements and capabilities. While a country-driven approach is important, it is not sufficient for investments in observing systems as it ignores the trans-boundary nature of weather and climate prediction. Second, past international engagement has focused on supporting infrastructure investments while relying on the unrealistic expectation that supported countries will cover all costs related to the operation and maintenance of their basic observations system which has a global public good dimension. Third, effective collaboration among the several scientific, financial, and operational partners involved in the implementation of the weather and climate observing system has proved to be very challenging. While several development partners are striving to overcome these barriers, the reality is, that due to their governance and country delivery models they are not in a position to deliver GBON support in a sustainable and effective manner.
SOFF will overcome the shortfalls of the current financing model by providing both technical and financial assistance in new ways: First, SOFF will apply an optimal and internationally agreed global design to guide investments – the GBON requirements. Second, SOFF will contribute to cover operation and maintenance costs by providing long-term support beyond time-bound investment projects through results-based finance to enable sustained data sharing. In other words, data sharing is used as a measure of success. Third, SOFF will create local benefits while recognizing the contribution of local observations for a critical regional and global public good.
SOFF will be created as a fit-for-purpose mechanism that will enable streamlined delivery and collaboration among the many financial, operational, and scientific partners required for the sustained implementation of the GBON.
Due to a lack or poor quality of weather and climate observations, today’s weather prediction models are short of the ultimate limit of predictability, and there is ample room for further improvement in predictability. A coordinated effort to design better models and increase the availability of surface-based data that feed these models could lead to 10-day forecasts reaching an accuracy equivalent to today’s 5-day forecasts. Each day of additional warning gives decision makers more time to prepare for increasingly record-breaking storms, forest fires, droughts, heatwaves, and floods and better understand adaptation challenges they will face and prepare and respond accordingly.
The estimated global annual benefit of weather and climate prediction is about USD 158 billion. The potential benefits directly attributed to the full implementation of GBON are assessed to be around USD 5 billion per year. The required investments to improve and sustain GBON in low- and middle-income countries would yield a cost-benefit ratio of more than 1:26. This means for every dollar invested, at least twenty-six dollars in socio-economic returns would be realized. While all regions would benefit from these improvements, regions with significant populations but limited observation networks would benefit the most, particularly Africa. Other parts of the globe will also profit from medium to long-range forecast improvements (World Bank research paper, in the process to be published).
